This article was first published on TurkishNY Radio.
MSCI has thrown Strategy and other Bitcoin-heavy public companies a lifeline, but it comes with a knot. The index provider will not, for now, push “digital asset treasury companies” out of its equity benchmarks in the February 2026 review.
That removes an immediate risk for investors who use these stocks as a wrapper for Bitcoin exposure, while changing the mechanics that once made fundraising feel easier.
MSCI Hit Pause, Then Rewired the Plumbing
In a January 6 announcement, MSCI said the current index treatment will remain in place for companies on its preliminary list, defined by digital asset holdings that represent 50% or more of total assets. MSCI also said it intends to open a broader consultation on the treatment of non-operating companies, aiming to keep indexes focused on operating businesses rather than entities that behave like investment vehicles.
An outright exclusion could have forced index-tracking funds to sell, regardless of the underlying Bitcoin thesis. By postponing that move, MSCI reduced the risk of mechanical selling tied to index rules, which can feel like a trapdoor because it is driven by rules, not judgment.
The Clause Investors Are Not Ignoring
MSCI also said it will not implement increases to the Number of Shares used in index calculations for the listed companies, and it will not increase key inclusion factors that influence index weight. It added that it will defer additions and certain size-related migrations for the same group.
This matters because index math can create real buying. When a company issues new stock, benchmarks usually update share counts later. Passive funds track the benchmark, then buy what they need, not what they want. Freezing the inputs weakens that automatic bid.
Strategy can still issue shares to buy Bitcoin, but it cannot assume index-linked demand will arrive later to help absorb dilution. That pushes more of the load onto discretionary buyers, who will price deals around valuation, liquidity, and the stock’s premium versus the implied value of the underlying Bitcoin.
Why This Changes the “Bitcoin Treasury” Trade
The model has always mixed conviction with capital markets. In strong periods, it can feel like a flywheel: equity raises funds, Bitcoin purchases, rising Bitcoin supports the narrative, and liquidity stays deep. The new setup makes the loop less self-reinforcing. Growth becomes more dependent on active managers, hedge funds, and retail investors choosing the stock for its specific structure, not because a benchmark quietly forces ownership behind the scenes.
It also sharpens the comparison with spot Bitcoin ETFs, which offer direct price tracking without corporate leverage or a stock premium that can swing with sentiment. If fundraising becomes more expensive or more episodic, some allocators may choose the ETF route for cleaner exposure, leaving treasury-style equities to compete on execution and capital discipline.
A Timeline Risk Still Hanging Over 2026
MSCI’s October 29 update to its preliminary list set a consultation timeline that ran through December 31, 2025, with conclusions previously expected by January 15, 2026. The January 6 decision effectively changes the destination: no exclusion in February, but a wider review later that could rewrite eligibility tests across more than just crypto-linked treasuries.
The Indicators That Will Decide the Next Raise
Bitcoin’s spot price remains the headline, but volatility and liquidity will influence whether new equity can be priced smoothly or needs discounts. Funding rates and derivatives positioning can hint at fragile leverage. ETF flows matter because they show steady institutional demand and often signal whether large allocators are leaning in or stepping back.
On the equity side, investors will track the premium or discount versus implied net asset value, the pace and pricing of issuance, borrow costs and short interest, and daily trading depth that can absorb large transactions without whipsawing the price. Those are the gauges that decide whether a capital raise feels routine or feels like pulling teeth.
Conclusion
MSCI avoided lighting the fuse on forced selling. Still, by freezing key index inputs, it reduced the quiet, price-insensitive demand that helped the Bitcoin-treasury flywheel spin smoothly. For Strategy, 2026 looks less like an automatic loop and more like a familiar challenge: earning real buyers for each new round of funding.
FAQ
What did MSCI decide about digital asset treasury companies?
MSCI said it will not implement its proposed exclusion of these companies from its global investable indexes as part of the February 2026 index review, while it prepares a broader consultation on how to treat non-operating companies.
What is the “share-count freeze,” and why does it matter?
MSCI said it will not implement increases to the Number of Shares or key inclusion factors for the affected securities, which can reduce the chance that passive index trackers become automatic buyers after new equity issuance.
Does this mean Strategy cannot raise money to buy more Bitcoin?
Strategy can still raise capital, including through equity issuance, but the path may depend more on active demand and deal pricing rather than assuming benchmark-driven buying will follow later.
Glossary of Key Terms
Digital Asset Treasury Company (DATCO): A label used in MSCI’s consultation for companies where digital asset holdings can represent a large share of total assets, often treated as a defining part of the corporate strategy.
Number of Shares (NOS): An index input MSCI uses in index calculations, which influences how much of a company is represented in the benchmark.
Foreign Inclusion Factor (FIF) and Domestic Inclusion Factor (DIF): MSCI factors that help determine how a security’s weight is calculated within an index framework.
Passive Index Fund: A fund designed to track an index, typically buying and selling based on index rules rather than discretionary research.
Dilution: The reduction in existing shareholders’ ownership percentage when a company issues additional shares.
Premium to Net Asset Value (NAV): When a stock trades above the implied value of the assets it represents, such as a company’s Bitcoin holdings net of liabilities.
