This article was first published on TurkishNY Radio.
Ethereum price fell below the $2,000 level this week to trade close to $1,985 at the time of writing. The pullback has the asset trading at levels not seen for several months. This despite strong on-chain growth and increasing institutional involvement.
Market sentiment remains cautious. Traders were watching to see if the recent decline was a deeper correction or a long-term buying opportunity.
Now more than half of all ETH is staked. Market value surpasses $17 billion in tokenized real-world assets on Ethereum. Institutional exposure is increasing. Meanwhile, on-chain value models indicate that ETH could be potentially undervalued.
Ethereum Price Lags Despite Staking Breaching 50% Supply
At time of writing, Santiment reports that there are over 80.95 million ETH in the proof-of-stake contract. That accounts for roughly 50.18% of the total supply, or nearly 8 million coins. It’s the first time staking has exceeded the halfway mark.
When ETH is staked, it exits from the liquid supply. This also squeeze’s available supply in the market. But Ethereum has yet to respond to this tightening pressure.
The spike in staking suggests holder confidence in the long term. In a sign that investors are willing to lock up tokens in exchange for securing the network and generating yield.
Staking growth typically ramps up in quieter market times. Rather than trading actively, participants seek passive rewards. This tendency contributes to the long-term stability of the network.
Real-World Asset Market Tops $17 Billion
Ethereum is still the king of tokenized real-world assets. RWA on the network has crossed $17b, nearly 300% YoY growth. Huge financial companies BlackRock, JPMorgan and Franklin Templeton are trying out tokenized products on Ethereum. Forecasts remain ambitious.
RWAs could be $2 trillion by 2028, according to Standard Chartered’s estimates. ARK Invest has projected as much as $11 trillion by 2030. However, as the network grows, Ethereum price now represents broader market uncertainty.
Institutional Holdings Increase Exposure
Bitmine Immersion Technologies disclosed holdings of 4.37 million ETH. This equals about 3.62% of circulating supply and is valued near $8.7 billion.
Large institutional holdings reduce circulating liquidity. They also reflect long-term conviction. Yet Ethereum price continues to trade lower as macro sentiment weighs on risk assets.
MVRV Signals Potential Undervaluation
On-chain data shows the 365-day Market Value to Realized Value ratio has fallen to -36%. Historically, such readings have marked undervalued phases.
Over the past seven years, similar MVRV levels have aligned with local or cycle bottoms. The metric typically confirms a buy signal when it rises back above 15%. Previous confirmations delivered average gains of nearly 98%.
At current levels, Ethereum price appears deeply discounted compared to historical norms. However, price can remain weak before reversal confirmation appears.
Technical Breakdown Raises $1,600 Risk
Ethereum price recently moved below its 100-week exponential moving average. Historical patterns suggested a possible 42% correction toward $1,600.
That projection has nearly played out. Price now consolidates near the $2,000 zone. Momentum indicators remain neutral. Traders appear hesitant. If price stabilizes near $1,600 and MVRV begins to recover, early reversal signals may emerge.
$2,200 Seen as Key Reversal Level
Analysts are watching $2,200 as a structural resistance level. A sustained move above this zone would confirm improving momentum.
Such a breakout could trigger short covering and renewed bullish sentiment. In that case, Ethereum price could aim toward $3,000. Until then, resistance remains firm.
| Month | Min. Price | Avg. Price | Max. Price | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 2026 | $ 1,955.43 | $ 2,150.97 | $ 2,356.75 |
18.83%
|
| Mar 2026 | $ 2,064.89 | $ 2,516.09 | $ 2,996.96 |
51.11%
|
| Apr 2026 | $ 2,726.16 | $ 3,172.23 | $ 3,607.99 |
81.92%
|
| May 2026 | $ 2,827.65 | $ 3,193.70 | $ 3,715.45 |
87.34%
|
| Jun 2026 | $ 2,573.20 | $ 3,001.21 | $ 3,324.95 |
67.65%
|
| Jul 2026 | $ 2,468.80 | $ 2,537.08 | $ 2,599.79 |
31.09%
|
| Aug 2026 | $ 2,428.37 | $ 2,554.42 | $ 2,943.42 |
48.41%
|
| Sep 2026 | $ 2,330.97 | $ 2,710.04 | $ 3,078.72 |
55.24%
|
| Oct 2026 | $ 2,130.15 | $ 2,317.33 | $ 2,433.27 |
22.69%
|
| Nov 2026 | $ 2,255.06 | $ 2,360.55 | $ 2,510.92 |
26.61%
|
| Dec 2026 | $ 2,283.98 | $ 2,299.17 | $ 2,324.51 |
17.21%
|
Sentiment Diverges From Fundamentals
The present era can be a sharp divergence, though. Network fundamentals are strengthening. Staking participation is currently at record highs. Institutional exposure continues to grow.
But the Ethereum price is still being suppressed. Short-term direction is still influenced by market psychology and macro conditions.
Conclusion
The future of Ethereum is uncertain. A 51% majority of its supply is locked in staking. Adoption of real-world assets is increasing at a rapid pace. Institutional involvement is rising.
In spite of these catalysts, the price action in ETH is near multi-month lows. On-chain metrics indicate undervaluation, but validation signals are required. The next few weeks will show whether fundamentals begin to trump bearish momentum.
Appendix: Glossary of Key Terms
Proof-of-Stake (PoS): A system in which validators secure the network by holding tokens as collateral.
Staking involves locking cryptocurrency to support transaction validation and help ensure the security of the underlying network, as well as achieving rewards.
Circulating Supply: The total supply of a currency in the market.
MVRV Ratio: A measure of market value divided by realized value, used to determine if the market is overvalued or undervalued.
Exponential Moving Average (EMA): A trend-following indicator that uses recent price data more than past data.
Short Squeeze: A sudden increase in price resulting from short covering.
Tokenized Real-World Assets (RWAs): Physical or financial assets that exist on a blockchain, digitally offered.
Frequently Asked Questions About Ethereum Price
1- Why is Ethereum down despite positive fundamentals?
Macro risk and short-term market sentiment tend to weigh more heavily than long-term network growth.
2- What will happen by staking more than 50% of supply?
It takes coins off the market and demonstrates serious holder dedication to providing security for the network.
3- What is the MVRV ratio?
MVRV Ratio MVRV Ratio looks at market value relative to realized value in order to determine if a crypto asset is undervalued or overvalued.
4- What level confirms that a trend has been reversed?
A continuation above $2,200 may verify a renewed uptrend.
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