This Article Was First Published on TurkishNY Radio.
CFTC approval marks a turning point
Polymarket is stepping back into the United States with a different posture from its earlier, experimental days. After securing approval from federal regulators, the crypto prediction platform has begun rolling out a new mobile app to waitlisted U.S. users, starting with real-money markets on sports events.
The turning point came when the Commodity Futures Trading Commission issued an amended order that allows Polymarket to operate an intermediated trading venue under rules that govern designated contract markets.
That move followed the acquisition of a licensed derivatives exchange and clearinghouse, giving the company a ready-made regulatory shell rather than a simple offshore workaround. It is an upgrade from the earlier chapter, when the platform was fined and ordered to block U.S. customers for running an unregistered marketplace.
Sports first as the U.S. on-ramp
The new app is live on iOS for selected American users who joined a waitlist, with access opening in stages instead of a single nationwide release. The first wave of markets focuses on sports, including game outcomes and tournament results, a deliberate choice to anchor liquidity in a familiar category before branching into topics such as elections or policy decisions.
That sports led design keeps the early product simple, measurable, and easier to supervise while the regulated structure beds in.
How prices become crypto probabilities
Prediction markets sit at the intersection of crypto, derivatives, and information. Traders buy shares linked to specific outcomes, and those prices shift in real time as news flows in and sentiment changes.
A contract that trades at 0.65 signals a market-implied 65 percent probability that the event will occur, according to the traders putting capital at risk. For professional desks and retail users alike, that signal can feel more concrete than a traditional poll, because it reflects actual money on the line rather than a quick survey response.
These markets also plug neatly into the broader crypto ecosystem. Settlement can run on chain, collateral often rests in stablecoins, and liquidity providers treat event contracts much like other token pairs. In that sense, prediction markets turn abstract forecasts into tradeable crypto instruments that live alongside spot, futures, and options markets.
Liquidity, regulation, and key crypto indicators
Regulated access in the United States also matters for liquidity. Under the new structure, intermediaries such as brokerages and futures commission merchants can connect clients directly to the venue while relying on familiar custody, clearing, and reporting rails.
That design aligns prediction markets more closely with mainstream commodities exchanges, which may make institutional risk teams more comfortable allocating size. Deeper order books in turn tend to narrow spreads, lower slippage, and improve the quality of the probability signal that the market generates.
For analysts who watch crypto linked prediction platforms, key indicators now include 24 hour and monthly trading volume, open interest on major markets, depth at the best bid and ask, realized volatility around big events, and how quickly implied probabilities adjust when new information hits the tape. Rising numbers across these metrics point to healthier markets and more reliable signals.
The timing of this return is not accidental. Volumes in event markets have climbed sharply in 2025, helped by interest in elections, macroeconomic decisions, and crypto specific catalysts. Recent data shows monthly prediction market volume reaching into the tens of billions of dollars across leading platforms, with both centralized and on chain venues setting new records.
Against that backdrop, a supervised U.S. venue gives the industry a chance to show that speculative activity does not have to mean regulatory chaos.
Conclusion
For now, the message is simple. After years of operating at the edges, often under regulatory scrutiny, prediction markets are slowly moving into the regulated core of the U.S. financial system, one modest sports contract at a time.
The next phase will show whether this more disciplined model can keep both traders and supervisors comfortable while still delivering the sharp, real-time probabilities that made prediction markets famous in the first place.
Frequently Asked Questions
What changed to allow Polymarket back into the United States?
Polymarket received an amended order from the U.S. derivatives regulator that lets it operate an intermediated trading venue under the same broad framework that governs designated contract markets.
Why does the new U.S. app start with sports markets?
The company chose sports as the first product set because outcomes are clear, data is abundant, and user demand is easy to measure.
Glossary of Key Terms
Implied probability
The probability that traders infer from the price of a contract. For example, a contract trading at 0.70 signals roughly a 70 percent chance of the event occurring, assuming fair pricing.
Designated contract market (DCM)
A type of regulated exchange in the United States that lists futures or options on commodities or events and must comply with the full set of rules under the Commodity Exchange Act.
Intermediated trading platform
An exchange model where traders access markets through intermediaries such as brokerages or futures commission merchants rather than facing the venue directly.
Open interest
The total number of outstanding contracts that have been opened but not yet closed or settled, often used as a gauge of participation and conviction in a particular market.
