Bitcoin tried to reach its previous all-time high of $73,738 on October 29, 2024 but didn’t quite get there. With the U.S. elections coming up, traders expect even more market swings and volatility after the results are in. Crypto prediction markets, like Polymarket and Kalshi, offer insights into what traders are betting on.
On Polymarket, around $3.21 billion is wagered on the November election, with 61.1% of bets favouring former President Donald Trump over Vice President Kamala Harris. Kalshi, which is regulated by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission, shows Trump with a 56.8% chance and Harris at 43.2%. By November 5, 2024, Kalshi’s betting pool for this election has reached $234.98 million.
Election Betting Market Prediction Points Towards a New ATH for Bitcoin
Betting markets may not always get election predictions right, but they reflect the mood among crypto traders. Trump has gained traction with pro-crypto traders, especially after his speech at the Nashville Bitcoin Conference, where he outlined bold plans: creating a national Bitcoin reserve and making the U.S. a leader in Bitcoin mining. His target? To retain 100% of the Bitcoin the U.S. acquires.
On the other side, Vice President Harris’s “Opportunity Agenda for Black Men” hints at a more cautious approach to crypto, though it lacks detail. While U.S. stock markets will close early on Election Tuesday, crypto markets stay open. BTC data indicates a Trump win could push Bitcoin closer to the $80,000 mark.
Meanwhile, a BingX exec says this Bitcoin cycle is one of the weakest since the halving, suggesting BTC is still undervalued.
“Crypto stocks are climbing—MicroStrategy and Robinhood both saw gains last month. Based on past trends, digital assets could be set for a price rise,” he notes.
Derivatives Data Suggests a Move Between $60k – $80k for BTC
Deribit’s BTC Volatility Index has been rising steadily since September 26, 2024, though it hasn’t seen the sharp jumps caused by events like Biden exiting the race in July or the U.S. market correction in August. After the elections, data shows that the $60,000 to $80,000 range is a major zone, with many traders betting on both sides.
On November 4, Farside Investors reported a $541 million net outflow from BTC Spot ETFs—the second consecutive day of big institutional withdrawals, likely in preparation for post-election swings. Data from prediction markets and ETF flows suggests institutional confidence in BTC was higher when Trump’s odds of winning stood at 67% on October 30, with $893.3 million flowing into Bitcoin ETFs that day.
In March, BTC hit its all-time high of $73,738 after strong inflows into U.S. Bitcoin ETFs. Currently, on November 5, BTC is trading around $73,845, close to that peak.
Bitcoin Technical Analysis: Eyes Set on a New ATH
Since July 2024, Bitcoin’s price has been on a rollercoaster, influenced by major events like Harris’s crypto proposal. On the BTC/USDT daily chart, Bitcoin has been testing its previous high. Data shows the $60,000 to $80,000 range as a key zone, with BTC mostly staying within it, except for a dip to $49,000 on August 5.
Since that dip, BTC has been on a short-term uptrend, building higher highs and lows. This momentum could carry on, especially after the elections, and a break past $73,738 could put Bitcoin closer to its $80,000 goal.
BTC price has been on a rollercoaster since July, responding to key political and market events. With U.S. elections coming up, traders expect more volatility, especially with Trump’s pro-Bitcoin stance adding to the buzz. Platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi show how closely traders are watching. While BTC has mostly hovered between $60,000 and $80,000, the election outcome could spark new momentum, likely influenced by the next leader’s economic policies.
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