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As the U.S. presidential election nears, a decline in Donald Trump’s chances of winning has led to a slowdown in the Bitcoin and altcoin markets. Amid rising election uncertainty, investors are approaching the market with caution, wary of potential volatility. According to Polymarket data, Trump’s winning odds have decreased by 4.5%, now standing at 58.1%. In response, Bitcoin and altcoins remain largely directionless as investors wait for clearer signals.
Election Uncertainty Weighs on the Crypto Market
Last week, Trump held a solid lead with over 60% winning probability. However, Democratic candidate Kamala Harris has gained strength in Wisconsin and Michigan, while Trump maintains leads in Arizona, Pennsylvania, Nevada, and Georgia. This shifting landscape has raised concerns among crypto investors.
The U.S. election is attracting significant international interest as well. According to The Wall Street Journal, a French investor with a banking background in the U.S. has placed a $38 million bet on Trump’s victory, hoping to earn over $80 million if Trump wins. However, a Harris win could mean a substantial loss for this investor.
Bitcoin’s price recently dropped from its peak of $73,000 to below $70,000, a decline mirrored in Ethereum (ETH), Solana (SOL), and Ripple (XRP). Many investors are now taking speculative positions in futures ahead of the election outcome.
Large-Scale Bitcoin Sales and ETF Trends
Data shows that long-term holders sold 180,000 BTC to large ETF buyers, and net inflows to spot Bitcoin ETFs turned negative following Trump’s declining win probability. Ethereum’s price dipped below $2,500, sparking concerns among investors. Analyst Peter Brandt warns of further downside risks for ETH, though he believes a recovery is possible if support at $2,480 holds. Until election results are finalized, market uncertainty is expected to continue.
