Renowned crypto analyst Rekt Capital has issued a cautionary note for Bitcoin investors, citing warning signs from both price action and the Relative Strength Index (RSI). According to his April 7, 2025 analysis, BTC may already be entering a potential downtrend after failing to hold above the $78,500 level.
Price Action Breaks Key Support
Bitcoin recently closed below its March low of $78,500—a level many had viewed as near-term support. This daily close has now turned that zone into a potential resistance. On both daily and weekly charts, this shift points to a weakening market structure, raising the likelihood of broader downside momentum.
According to Turkish NY Radio’s analysis of Rekt Capital’s findings, the market is lacking bullish momentum. Although the broader structure remains intact, the failure to hold above key levels suggests a lack of buying conviction, especially ahead of upcoming macro events like the Bitcoin halving.
RSI Divergence Suggests Bearish Continuation
RSI indicators, which measure price momentum, are also flashing warning signs. In past cycles, Rekt Capital observed a pattern in which Bitcoin forms lower price lows while RSI carves out higher lows—a setup known as bullish divergence. While this usually precedes a reversal, it also signals interim weakness before any recovery.
In historical cases, such patterns were accompanied by price drops exceeding 8% between dip points. However, the current drawdown stands at just 2.79%, suggesting more downside could be on the table if this trend mirrors previous cycles.
Bitcoin Risks Slipping Below $70,000
Should the bearish pattern continue, Bitcoin could revisit or fall below the $70,000 level, which serves both as a psychological and technical support. This threshold also acted as a reaccumulation zone ahead of past halving events, making it critical to preserve.
A breakdown below $70,000 would likely have a negative psychological impact, particularly since many institutional and retail investors used this zone as an entry point. If breached, Turkish NY Radio notes the potential for panic selling and increased volatility as confidence deteriorates.
Final Thoughts
While the overall trend is not yet confirmed as bearish, the lack of strength in both price and momentum metrics demands caution. For traders and long-term investors alike, maintaining awareness of RSI divergences, historical parallels, and emotional trigger points like the $70K level will be crucial in navigating the coming weeks.
References
- Rekt Capital – Technical Market Analysis
https://twitter.com/rektcapital
→ Original analysis source discussing RSI trends, bearish divergence, and Bitcoin price structure (April 7, 2025). - TradingView – Bitcoin/USD Charts
https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/BTCUSD/
→ Used for validating historical RSI patterns and price support/resistance zones.
