This article was first published on TurkishNY Radio.
Gemini has stepped into event-based trading with Gemini Predictions, a feature that lets U.S. customers trade contracts that resolve as a clear yes or no. The company says the product is live across all 50 states on the web and iOS, with Android planned next, and trading fees waived for a limited time. The approach is familiar: make the first experience simple, then let liquidity build.
In an X post announcing the rollout, Gemini said users can trade on “real world events with near instant execution and full transparency.” That promise matters because crypto prediction markets only feel useful when pricing updates fast and the rules are easy to verify.
What Gemini Predictions actually offers
Gemini describes event contracts as straightforward outcome questions, and U.S. customers use USD already held in their exchange account to trade them. The design keeps the product close to how people already interact with crypto apps, which is one reason crypto prediction markets keep pulling attention away from slow polls and after-the-fact commentary.
How crypto prediction markets reached a U.S. green light
The rollout follows a regulatory milestone. Gemini Titan, an affiliate, received a Designated Contract Market license from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Gemini says it first applied on March 10, 2020, and the CFTC’s industry listings show Gemini Titan as designated on December 10, 2025. That matters for institutional comfort, but it also matters for everyday users who want clearer oversight than offshore alternatives.
Gemini’s executives were direct about the shift. CEO Tyler Winklevoss called the approval “the culmination of a 5-year licensing process,” and said, “We thank President Trump for ending the Biden Administration’s War on Crypto,” while crediting Acting Chairman Caroline D. Pham. President Cameron Winklevoss said, “Prediction markets have the potential to be as big or bigger than traditional capital markets,” signaling that crypto prediction markets are not a side quest for the company.
Why traders will watch liquidity and positioning
A contract priced near 0.60 implies the crowd sees about a 60% chance of a result, and that probability can swing as new information hits. For crypto audiences, the read-through is practical: these contracts can complement spot momentum, open interest, and liquidation activity, especially around macro decisions. Reuters has noted the sector draws gambling-style criticism, yet supporters argue markets can aggregate expectations more effectively than conventional forecasting.
Competition will test durability. Gemini is entering a field with established venues and strong on-chain activity, but it is betting that nationwide distribution plus a fee-free window will keep users engaged. If liquidity stays healthy, crypto prediction markets could become a routine sentiment dashboard instead of a once-a-cycle novelty.
Conclusion
Gemini Predictions puts regulated outcome trading into the same place people already hold dollars and crypto, and that is a meaningful UX win. If the rollout stays clean and contracts remain well-defined, crypto prediction markets may become a standard tool for pricing uncertainty in the U.S. without requiring constant leverage.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is Gemini Predictions available in every U.S. state?
Gemini says it is live across all 50 states.
Are there trading fees?
Gemini says trading is fee-free for a limited time.
Who regulates it?
Gemini Titan received a CFTC Designated Contract Market license.
Do crypto prediction markets work like futures?
No, crypto prediction markets settle on defined outcomes as yes or no, rather than tracking a continuous price.
Glossary of key terms
Designated Contract Market: A CFTC-regulated venue authorized to list certain derivatives.
Event contract: A contract that settles when a defined outcome happens.
Liquidity: How easily a position can be opened or closed without large price impact.
Open interest: The number of outstanding derivatives positions.
Spread: The gap between the best bid and best ask.
