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Toncoin has failed to hold its value for the last few months due to the growing dominance of Bitcoin, which currently stands at almost 60% of the market. TON, the native coin of the Telegram-backed Layer 1 blockchain, has been stuck in a correction phase since early 2024. Despite being fully diluted at $25 billion and trading $164 million daily, large-cap Toncoin has hardly regained momentum.
Indeed, investor confidence is still very low, and most investors are questioning whether the Toncoin price prediction for 2025 will continue to reflect a bearish outlook or perhaps the ecosystem can trigger a recovery. The market data indicated that sluggish ecosystem growth of TON, reduced whale activity, and stagnant DeFi development were a few factors responsible for the continuous downtrend. Barring a strong catalyst, the short-term outlook remains weak.
Whale Activity Goes Down the Drain As Investors Feel Weak
The declining involvement of whale investors is one of the major indicators that underpin the TON price prediction. According to the market data from Santiment, investors holding between 10 and 10,000 TON tokens have liquidated over 890,000 tokens since mid-2024. This has become more intense after the arrest of Telegram founder Pavel Durov in France, which further puts pressure on the market performance of Toncoin.
Despite the continuing support from the Toncoin Foundation, the DeFi segment within the TON ecosystem has failed to gain meaningful traction. According to Inal Kardan, a partner at TON Ventures, the network hasn’t scaled as was expected, with stagnation seen in most important metrics, from liquidity inflows to project developments. This stagnation has, in turn, made it tough for TON to compete against other Layer 1s, which have been heavily scaling their ecosystems.
However, Kardan remains relatively upbeat, suggesting that TON’s meme coins could see demand in the short term. If the meme coin space were to see a breakout, that could spur activity on the chain and provide some much-needed upside momentum for the Toncoin price.
DeFi and Ecosystem Growth Remain Key to TON’s Future
Needless to say, the forecast for Toncoin is by no means gloomy. Drawing on the strength of Telegram’s nearly 1 billion monthly active users, TON has progressively expanded its influence in DeFi. According to DefiLlama, its total value locked currently stands at $272 million, with a stablecoin market cap of $1.4 billion.
Core developers have given indications for growth based on the ambitious roadmap provided into the first half of 2025: major scalability-oriented upgrades, such as an Accelerator Kernel update meant to enhance the general efficiency of DeFi, thereby opening functionality for safe bridges with the ecosystem of Bitcoin. The creators also believe that enabling interoperability between TON and Bitcoin may ultimately contribute to changing its fortune because of incoming liquidity and interest by institutional investors.
Will Toncoin Recover in 2025?
The future of the $TON price prediction depends on several critical factors. If DeFi adoption within the ecosystem accelerates, combined with successful implementations of Bitcoin bridges and Layer 1 improvements, TON could regain momentum. However, market sentiment remains fragile, and the lack of strong investor accumulation signals that TON’s bearish trends may persist in the short term.
While Toncoin is fundamentally sound, considering the massive user base of Telegram backing it, the next few months will be crucial for determining whether TON can reverse its downtrend or continue to struggle against Bitcoin’s dominance. Investors and analysts alike will be watching closely to see if Toncoin can defy the odds and stage a comeback in 2025.
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FAQs
1. Why is Toncoin experiencing a bearish trend?
Toncoin has been declining due to Bitcoin’s increasing market dominance, reduced whale investor activity, and slow ecosystem growth. Additionally, the arrest of Telegram’s founder in 2024 further impacted market confidence.
2. Will Toncoin recover in 2025?
A potential rebound depends on DeFi expansion, ecosystem growth, and investor sentiment. If the Bitcoin bridge and scalability improvements succeed, TON may regain momentum.
3. How does whale activity affect Toncoin’s price?
Whale investors exiting their positions often lead to increased selling pressure, causing price declines. Over 890,000 TON tokens were sold by whales in mid-2024, contributing to the ongoing downtrend.
4. What is the biggest factor influencing Toncoin’s price?
Bitcoin’s rising dominance has pulled liquidity away from altcoins like Toncoin. Without strong network adoption and investor confidence, TON’s bearish cycle may continue into 2025.
